Skradzione wybory

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Na razie nie wiadomo jeszcze kto wygrał w USA wybory, chociaż wszystkie znaki na niebie i ziemi wskazują na Bidena. Ale z tego, co wiadomo, można już wyciągnąć wnioski na przyszłość.

To, że te wybory nie będą łatwe, było dla wszystkich jasne od początku. Demokraci w dużym stopniu zignorowali zagrożenie ze strony Trumpa w 2016. Fakt, że wygrał republikańskie prawybory, wydał im się jakąś historyczną anomalią, ale do samego końca nie wierzyli, że pokona ich wypieszczoną i wychuchaną Clinton. Ba, wielu się cieszyło nawet z tego, że wygrał on a nie np. Cruz czy Bush, bo z kimś takim będzie jej dużo łatwiej wygrać w wyborach właściwych.

Skończyło się to jak skończyło i w tym roku potraktowali go już wyjątkowo poważnie. Rzucili do boju dosłownie wszystko – najbardziej znanego i budzącego sympatię kandydata, ogromną kasę, wszystkie zaprzyjaźnione media, szefów mediów społecznościowych. I chyba podziałało. Teoretycznie Trump ma jeszcze szansę na wygraną po ponownym liczeniu głosów, ale szczerze w to wątpię. Ot, prawnicy zarobią, presstytutki będą miały przez jakiś czas o czym pisać, ale na tym raczej koniec. Chciałbym się mylić, chociażby po to żeby zobaczyć łzy liberałów, ale nie mam zbyt wielkiej nadziei na to, że zakończy się to w inny sposób.

I od razu podkreślmy, że nie wiem czy Trump ma rację i Biden faktycznie wygrał dzięki oszustwu. Wybory w USA zawsze bardziej jakiś afrykański bantustan przypominają niż zachodnie państwo demokratyczne i oskarżenia o przekręty nie są niczym niezwykłym. Republikanie nawet śmieją się często, że ich dziadkowie całe życie byli Republikanami ale po śmierci nagle zaczęli głosować na Demokratów. Te wybory były o tyle wyjątkowe, że różnice pomiędzy oboma kandydatami były tak małe, że te przekręty – jeśli miały miejsce – faktycznie mogły zmienić wynik. Ale pewności nie będziemy mieli do zakończenia śledztw, o ile w ogóle.

W demokracji nie liczą się jednak fakty, liczą się opinie. A patrząc na to, co się w trakcie tych wyborów wyprawiało, trudno nie pomyśleć, że coś tam śmierdzi. I to wyjątkowo paskudnie.

Dużą rolę zapewne odegrały w tym media. Nie wiem ilu z was przegląda amerykańskie portale czy telewizje, ale tamtejsze presstytutki już dawno wydały wyrok. W niemal każdym artykule o oszustwach wyborczych – bo o sprawie jest zbyt głośno żeby dało się ją zamieść pod dywan stwierdzenie, że oskarżenia Trumpa są bezpodstawne jest nie tylko w tekście ale już w tytule. A już prawdziwą wisienką na torcie było przerywanie w połowie wystąpień bądź co bądź nadal urzędującego prezydenta.

Dziennikarze oczywiście tłumaczą swoje zachowanie troską o dobro kraju. Powtarzają, że nie chcą pozwolić na to aby Trump swoimi „bezpodstawnymi oskarżeniami” jeszcze bardziej zwiększył chaos, który panuje w USA. Takie wytłumaczenie miałoby może sens gdyby nie jeden malutki fakt. Ci sami dziennikarze grzali niemal non stop i zupełnie bezkrytycznie teorię jakoby Trumpowi w wyborach pomogli Rosjanie – chociaż przez cztery lata, pomimo zaangażowania gigantycznych środków, nikt nie przedstawił na to nawet cienia dowodu. Te same media dawały platformę Hillary Clinton, która otwarcie twierdziła, że Trump ukradł jej wybory, ostatni raz bodajże cztery lata temu. I wtedy jakoś nie twierdzili, że takie bezpodstawne oskarżenia zwiększają w USA chaos. Nikt nie zabrania udawać dziewicy, ale ciężko się dziwić, że ludzie się na to nie łapią jak się na co dzień pracuje się w burdelu.

Efekt tej aktywności będzie przeciwny do zamierzonego. Zaufanie do dziennikarzy w USA od dawna leci w dół. Szczególnie widoczne jest to wśród Republikanów, i doprawdy trudno się temu dziwić, amerykańskie mainstreamowe media już nawet nie udają, że nie są partyjnymi szczekaczkami Demokratów. Skoro więc tak gorliwie zapewniają, że wszystko było w jak najlepszym porządku i żadnych przekrętów nie było, to dla wielu osób będzie to jedyny dowód jakiego potrzebują na to, że jednak były.

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Najbardziej namacalnym efektem tych wyborów będzie moim zdaniem powstanie nowej, radykalnej siły. Stworzy ją mit o skradzionych wyborach, tak jak ideologiczna letniość i miałkość GOPu w czasach obu Bushy stworzyła i wypromowała alt-right, a ten dał USA prezydenturę Trumpa. Już teraz niektórzy „radykałowie” albo otwarcie stają po stronie Trumpa albo atakują bardziej umiarkowanych jako zdrajców. Nie zdziwię się jak w 2023 w republikańskich prawyborach zwycięży ktoś taki jak Kristi Noem czy nawet Eric Trump, zdziwię się jak będzie inaczej

Pytaniem pozostaje jeszcze to jak GOP wykorzysta tę siłę. Radykalni anty-trumperzy jak Bushowie, Romney czy Sassie zapewne się cieszą, że ich stary kumpel Biden pokonał Trumpa, ale reszta partyjnego establishmentu to jeszcze niewiadoma. Mają zasadniczo dwa wyjścia: albo zaakceptują tę siłę i wykorzystają ją w wyborach za dwa lata albo będą z nią walczyć, doprowadzając do takich podziałów w partii z jakimi teraz zmagają się Demokraci. Podejrzewam, że to pierwsze jest bardziej prawdopodobne. Lindsay, niegdyś jeden z bardziej radykalnych przeciwników pomarańczowego, obecnie jest jego największym stronnikiem, a McConnell to stary lis, więc pewnie obaj pociągną partię w tą stronę. Fakt, że jak na razie tylko czterech republikańskich senatorów – Sasse, Murkowski, Romney i Collins – pogratulowali Bidenowi zwycięstwa, a inni starannie unikają mówienia o nim jako o prezydencie-elekcie świadczy, że pójdzie to właśnie w tą stronę.

Tak czy siak, umiarkowany, letni GOP z lat dziewięćdziesiątych i pierwszej dekady tego wieku to już jest trup. Od czasów Busha seniora w amerykańskiej polityce panowało przekonanie, że polityk skuteczny musi być centrowym technokratą, że wykazanie jakiejkolwiek ideowości poza absolutnie minimalny zestaw tego, co wypada, odstraszy wyborców i uniemożliwi zwycięstwo. Już wybory 2016 i szybka porażka kandydatów establishmentowych w prawyborach pokazała, że czasy się zmieniają i wyborcy chcą kogoś bardziej zdecydowanego. A zwycięstwo Trumpa tylko ukoronowało ten proces. Irytacja na to, co się dzieje teraz i poczucie niemocy pchną GOP jeszcze bardziej w prawo, pytaniem jest tylko to, czy partyjny establishment będzie próbował z tym walczyć czy też sam się do tego ruchu podłączy.

Samo zwycięstwo Bidena, jeśli uda mu się faktycznie wygrać, może natomiast paradoksalnie okazać się dla Demokratów paskudnym problemem. Z dwóch różnych powodów, z których pierwszym jest pandemia koronawirusa. Gdyby nie ona, to pewnie nawet fałszując wybory nie miałby szans wygrać – jednym z najlepszych prognostyków szans na reelekcję jest to jak radzi sobie gospodarka, a ta za Trumpa radziła sobie wyjątkowo dobrze dopóki nie uderzyły w nią lockdowny. Ale jego prezydentura teraz oznacza, że najgorsze skutki kryzysu i odbudowy, która też pewnie łatwa i lekka nie będzie, wypadną na jego zmianie. Gdyby wygrał Trump, to wtedy nieunikniony raczej gniew społeczeństwa skupiłby się na nim, a tak siłą rzeczy oberwie się Demokratom. Biden raczej, choćby z racji podeszłego wieku, nie będzie raczej walczył o drugą kadencję, ale jego następcy nie wróży to dobrze, podobnie jak demokratycznym kandydatom w 2022.

Drugim problemem jest to, że jego prezydentura jeszcze bardziej podzieli Demokratów. Już teraz to są praktycznie dwie osobne partie, stara gwardia i radykalni socjaliści, które często walczą ze sobą nawzajem ostrzej niż z prawicą. Wiele osób liczyło na to, że Biden nieco te podziały zmniejszy dając przedstawicielom radykałów jakieś stanowiska w swojej administracji – bajdurzono nawet o tym, że Bernie Sanders miałby zostać sekretarzem ds. pracy – czy przepchnie niektóre z ich bardziej radykalnych pomysłów. Ale na to nie ma szans, przynajmniej przez najbliższe dwa lata.

Plan Demokratów wysypał się na tym, że pomimo wydania kupy kasy nie udało im się prawdopodobnie zdobyć większości w Senacie. A to oznacza, że nominując kandydatów do swojego gabinetu Biden będzie musiał wybierać centrystów – nie ma szans, żeby jakiś Reps zagłosował za potwierdzeniem Sandersa czy Warren. Także jego bardziej lewicowe inicjatywy ustawodawcze odbiją się od Senatu. A jak będzie próbował rządzić przy pomocy rozkazów, to wzorem lewicy Republikanie będą go blokować w sądach, korzystając z tego, że im Trump trójkę konserwatystów do SCOTUSu wrzucił. Innymi słowy jego rządy, przynajmniej do następnych wyborów do Senatu, nie będą dużo bardziej lewicowe niż rządy np. Busha.

A to się skrajnej lewicy na pewno nie spodoba. Biden nigdy nie był ich wymarzonym kandydatem, ale zaakceptowali z bólem, że on ma szansę pokonać Trumpa, a ktoś taki jak Bernie już nie. Ale jeśli wygrana Bidena nie przyniesie im nic poza krótką satysfakcją z tego, że Trump poleciał z Białego Domu, to po raz kolejny ten argument już na nich nie podziała. Podziały z 2016 nie tylko nie znikną, ale jeszcze bardziej się zaognią.

Bardziej ideowi zwolennicy obu partii mają za to jedną rzecz wspólną ze sobą. Te wybory znacznie ograniczą ich wiarę w proces demokratyczny. Prawica nie da się przekonać, że Biden wygrał uczciwie. Lewica będzie zła o to, że wygrał a nic się nie zmienia. Jaki będzie długofalowy efekt tej straty wiary – nie wiem. Ale te krótkotrwałe będą zapewne efektowne i wcale się nie zdziwię jak na amerykańskich ulicach wkrótce poleje się krew.

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